Measuring Organic Traffic: Why Content Marketers Should Use Google Analytics 4 Instead of Ahrefs?

Considering that Google is the largest search engine today use Google Analytics 4 or famously known as GA4 to check a website's organic visitors. Third-party services like Ahrefs do not provide accurate information but only rough estimates that are far from the actual reality.

Website's Organic Traffic: You Need Certainty, Not Estimates

Ahrefs estimates organic traffic using a combination of keyword analysis, ranking data, and estimated click-through rates (CTR) for various positions in search engine results. The keywords that a website ranks for in Google's search results are determined by Ahrefs' crawler. Then, Ahrefs calculates the projected monthly search volume for each keyword (which shows how frequently that keyword is searched each month). Search engines, third-party providers, or Ahrefs' own computations based on a number of variables are the sources of this search volume statistics. The website's ranking position for each term is then examined by Ahrefs, since higher rankings typically translate into higher click-through rates (CTR) and more traffic. Ahrefs calculates the likely traffic for each keyword by applying a CTR percentage to the search volume, modified based on the website's ranking position, using a CTR model based on user behavior studies. An overall monthly organic traffic estimate for the website is produced by Ahrefs after calculating traffic for each keyword. This estimate is the best approximation of the total number of organic search-driven visits. A different calculation model is used by GA4 or Google Analytics 4. The GA4 can accurately measures organic traffic after the installation of an organic traffic tracking script. Therefore, GA4 can provide certainty about the number of visitors with highly detailed information.

Bias in Ahrefs Estimation

Ahrefs unfairly places web articles with certain criteria at the top positions, even with very high numbers, despite the fact that these articles have no organic visitors at all. This happens because the formula used by Ahrefs is inaccurate. Furthermore, they only count certain keywords, not all of them. Often, articles with high visitor numbers are sometimes not counted, while articles with few or no visitors are given an extremely high number of organic visitors.

Self-evidentiary Measures: You Prove It

To prove this for yourself, you can perform a simple experiment by comparing the rankings and organic traffic data provided by Ahrefs with actual traffic data using other tools or analytics platforms. Here's how you can do it:

Choose Articles to Analyze

Select a few web articles that are listed on Ahrefs with high rankings and organic traffic. Note the Ahrefs traffic estimates and ranking positions.

Check Actual Traffic

If you have access to the website's Google Analytics or other traffic tracking tools, compare the actual visitor count for the selected articles over a specific period. If you don’t have access to analytics, you could use other SEO tools like Google Search Console to check the actual search traffic for the articles.

Compare Keyword Data

Look at the specific keywords that Ahrefs is counting for each article. Check whether those keywords are truly driving traffic or if they are misrepresenting the traffic due to irrelevant or inaccurate keyword inclusion.

Cross-check with GA4 or Other SEO Tools

Use other SEO tools like SEMrush, Moz, or Ubersuggest to compare the same articles' rankings and traffic estimates. Look for discrepancies in how these tools estimate the traffic or rankings versus Ahrefs’ data.

Notice The Data Bias

If you notice that Ahrefs consistently overestimates traffic or ranks pages highly without organic traffic, this would suggest a bias or flaw in its estimation formula. Also, if articles with low traffic have inflated organic visit counts, it further supports the idea of an estimation bias in Ahrefs.

For Content Marketers

The bias in Ahrefs’ traffic estimation and ranking can significantly impact content marketers, leading to several challenges that could affect their strategies and outcomes. One of the primary concerns is the potential for misleading data, which can disrupt the entire content marketing strategy. If Ahrefs overestimates the organic traffic of certain pages, content marketers might make decisions based on inaccurate assumptions. For instance, they could believe that specific content is driving more organic traffic than it actually is, leading them to prioritize optimization efforts on pages that aren't generating the expected results.

This misrepresentation of traffic can also result in wasted resources. Marketers may invest time, money, and effort into optimizing content that appears to have high organic potential according to Ahrefs but doesn't yield substantial traffic. They might spend considerable resources on improving rankings or creating similar content, only to realize that the actual visitor numbers don't align with the estimated ones. This can cause frustration and inefficiencies in the marketing process, where efforts do not translate into tangible outcomes.

Another issue is the narrow scope of keyword targeting due to Ahrefs only counting certain keywords. Content marketers could focus on a limited set of keywords that the tool suggests are driving traffic. However, this could mean overlooking other valuable keywords or missing opportunities in related search terms that might be more effective in attracting a broader audience. The focus on a narrow keyword set reduces the opportunity to capture a wider search audience, potentially limiting the reach and impact of the content.

Additionally, inaccurate data can skew competitor analysis. Content marketers often rely on tools like Ahrefs to study competitors and identify successful content strategies. However, if Ahrefs provides flawed traffic estimates, marketers might misjudge the performance of their competitors. This can lead to misguided assumptions about what works in the industry, resulting in missed opportunities to gain insights that could enhance their own content strategy.

The bias in Ahrefs also complicates the measurement of content marketing’s ROI. If marketers rely on Ahrefs’ estimates, they may think that their content strategy is yielding greater success than it actually is. For example, an article may rank highly in Ahrefs but fail to attract actual organic traffic, leading marketers to believe their SEO efforts are more effective than they truly are. This misalignment of expectations could lead to poor decision-making and missed opportunities for improving content strategies.

Furthermore, the bias in Ahrefs may cause content prioritization issues. Marketers might end up focusing on optimizing articles or creating new content based on inaccurate traffic data, while neglecting other pieces that are actually driving organic traffic. This can result in a lack of focus on content that could be more beneficial in the long run, shifting the attention away from areas that need improvement or refinement.

Finally, relying on Ahrefs' potentially flawed data can affect budget allocation. Content marketers may allocate significant budgets to promote content based on its high ranking or perceived organic traffic, only to discover that the traffic is far lower than anticipated. This could lead to inefficient spending, with resources directed at content that isn't performing as well as expected, ultimately impacting the overall effectiveness of the marketing campaign.

To avoid these issues, content marketers should diversify their tools and strategies. It’s important to use a variety of SEO and analytics platforms, such as Google Analytics, Google Search Console, and SEMrush, to cross-check data and ensure that the decisions made are based on reliable and comprehensive information. Rather than relying solely on Ahrefs’ estimated rankings and organic traffic, marketers should focus on actual visitor data from more accurate sources like Google Analytics. By doing so, they can ensure that their strategies are based on real performance, allowing them to make better decisions about where to focus their efforts.

Additionally, content marketers should adopt a broader approach to keyword targeting, considering long-tail keywords and related search terms to ensure they’re not missing valuable opportunities. Regularly assessing content performance based on real traffic, engagement, and conversions rather than relying solely on estimated metrics will allow marketers to adjust their strategies in real time. This comprehensive approach will help mitigate the risks associated with Ahrefs' bias and ensure that content marketing efforts are more effective and efficient.